2026 Week 1 Projections

16 games · 10,000 simulations each · generated Sep 10, 2026
DateMatchupQBs Proj score Favorite Home win Total Market Edge
09-09 NE NE at SEA SEA Drake Maye / Sam Darnold 19.9 – 23.4 SEA 3.5 58% 43.4 +3.0 +0.5
09-10 SF SF at LA LA (neutral) Brock Purdy / Matthew Stafford 22.9 – 30.3 LA 7.4 71% 53.1 +3.5 +3.9
09-13 ARI ARI at LAC LAC Jacoby Brissett / Justin Herbert 18.6 – 26.5 LAC 7.8 71% 45.1 +9.5 -1.7
09-13 ATL ATL at PIT PIT Tua Tagovailoa / Aaron Rodgers 20.3 – 21.8 PIT 1.4 57% 42.1 +3.5 -2.1
09-13 BAL BAL at IND IND Lamar Jackson / Daniel Jones 20.5 – 23.7 IND 3.2 58% 44.2 -3.5 +6.7⚡ FADE
09-13 BUF BUF at HOU HOU Josh Allen / C.J. Stroud 22.6 – 23.6 HOU 1.0 52% 46.2 -1.5 +2.5⚡ FADE
09-13 CHI CHI at CAR CAR Caleb Williams / Bryce Young 26.0 – 21.2 CHI 4.8 35% 47.2 -3.0 -1.8
09-13 CLE CLE at JAX JAX Deshaun Watson / Trevor Lawrence 15.1 – 26.3 JAX 11.2 81% 41.4 +8.5 +2.7
09-13 DAL DAL at NYG NYG Dak Prescott / Jaxson Dart 24.8 – 25.4 NYG 0.6 51% 50.1 -3.0 +3.6⚡ FADE
09-13 GB GB at MIN MIN Jordan Love / Kyler Murray 21.7 – 20.7 GB 0.9 47% 42.4 +1.5 -2.4⚡ FADE
09-13 MIA MIA at LV LV Malik Willis / Kirk Cousins 21.2 – 21.2 MIA 0.0 51% 42.5 +3.5 -3.5⚡ FADE
09-13 NO NO at DET DET Tyler Shough / Jared Goff 20.0 – 27.4 DET 7.3 74% 47.4 +7.0 +0.3
09-13 NYJ NYJ at TEN TEN Geno Smith / Cam Ward 20.2 – 21.1 TEN 0.9 55% 41.4 +1.5 -0.6
09-13 TB TB at CIN CIN Baker Mayfield / Joe Burrow 22.9 – 23.6 CIN 0.7 52% 46.5 +3.5 -2.8
09-13 WAS WAS at PHI PHI Jayden Daniels / Jalen Hurts 16.1 – 25.9 PHI 9.7 79% 42.0 +5.5 +4.2
09-14 DEN DEN at KC KC Bo Nix / Patrick Mahomes 23.4 – 20.2 DEN 3.3 40% 43.6 +2.5 -5.8⚡ FADE

Market is the spread from the home team's perspective — positive means the home side is favored. Edge is the model's margin minus the market's; FADE marks the games where the two disagree on the winner.

NE at SEA

NE at SEA

2026 Week 1 · 2026-09-09 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -18 to +25
SEA Win Prob
58.1%
NE Win Prob
41.9%
Projected
23–20
Exp. Margin
+3.5
Exp. Total
43.4
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesSEANE
EPA / play+0.072+0.097 ◀
QB EPA / att+0.180+0.196 ◀
Avg air yards8.1 yds10.1 yds ◀
Avg YAC5.7 yds ◀5.3 yds
Deep pass rate17.1%22.7% ◀
Pass rate48.7% ◀48.4%
Shotgun rate46.8%56.1% ◀
Rush EPA / carry-0.064-0.013 ◀
3rd down conv %40.6%40.8% ◀
Red zone TD %19.2%24.1% ◀
Turnover rate2.1%1.7% ◀
QB comp %63.2% ◀61.9%
QB YPA8.1 yds ◀7.9 yds
Sack rate allowed5.5% ◀8.8%
YPC (rush)4.3 yds4.5 yds ◀
EPA / play (L8)+0.065+0.070 ◀
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesSEANE
EPA allowed / play-0.156 ◀-0.124
Air yds allowed6.9 yds ◀7.6 yds
YPC allowed4.0 yds ◀4.2 yds
YAC allowed5.2 yds4.2 yds ◀
Deep rate allowed16.5%15.6% ◀
Sack rate gen6.8% ◀6.0%
TO forced rate2.9% ◀2.4%
RZ TD rate allowed21.3% ◀24.2%
Trending — Last 8 GamesSEANE
OFF EPA/play+0.065+0.070 ◀
QB EPA/att+0.115 ◀+0.113
Rush EPA/carry-0.026+0.052 ◀
DEF EPA allowed-0.191 ◀-0.150
Avg air yards7.3 yds10.4 yds ◀
3rd down conv%39.9% ◀38.6%
Turnover rate1.4% ◀2.2%
Pass EPA/att+0.123 ◀+0.039
Margin Model DriversSEANE
away_psr_matchup_17+1.40 pts▲ SEA
away_pdm_matchup_17+0.89 pts▲ SEA
away_psm_matchup_17+0.48 pts▲ SEA
away_pdr_matchup_17+0.42 pts▲ SEA
pdr_matchup_17-0.41 pts▼ NE
Net EPA edge (L17)+0.39 pts▲ SEA
QB EPA/att edge (L8)-0.34 pts▼ NE
home_pass_rate_17+0.30 pts▲ SEA
pdm_matchup_17+0.30 pts▲ SEA
QB completion % edge+0.28 pts▲ SEA
Rest
7d
 
7d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+3.0
O/U
44.5
SF at LA

SF at LA

2026 Week 1 · 2026-09-10 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -15 to +30
LA Win Prob
71.1%
SF Win Prob
28.9%
Projected
30–23
Exp. Margin
+7.4
Exp. Total
53.1
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesLASF
EPA / play+0.145 ◀+0.046
QB EPA / att+0.225 ◀+0.118
Avg air yards9.8 yds ◀7.6 yds
Avg YAC5.0 yds ◀4.6 yds
Deep pass rate25.6% ◀15.3%
Pass rate57.5% ◀54.9%
Shotgun rate43.7%55.1% ◀
Rush EPA / carry-0.024 ◀-0.055
3rd down conv %35.2%48.3% ◀
Red zone TD %26.8% ◀22.1%
Turnover rate1.4% ◀2.4%
QB comp %61.0%63.5% ◀
QB YPA7.5 yds ◀7.2 yds
Sack rate allowed3.5% ◀4.2%
YPC (rush)4.6 yds ◀3.8 yds
EPA / play (L8)+0.185 ◀+0.029
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesLASF
EPA allowed / play-0.040 ◀+0.094
Air yds allowed8.1 yds7.8 yds ◀
YPC allowed4.3 yds ◀4.4 yds
YAC allowed5.0 yds4.8 yds ◀
Deep rate allowed18.9%18.5% ◀
Sack rate gen5.5% ◀3.4%
TO forced rate2.5% ◀1.2%
RZ TD rate allowed17.8% ◀21.0%
Trending — Last 8 GamesLASF
OFF EPA/play+0.185 ◀+0.029
QB EPA/att+0.269 ◀+0.080
Rush EPA/carry+0.053 ◀-0.038
DEF EPA allowed+0.046 ◀+0.050
Avg air yards10.8 yds ◀7.7 yds
3rd down conv%32.7%54.9% ◀
Turnover rate1.1% ◀2.7%
Pass EPA/att+0.273 ◀+0.085
Margin Model DriversLASF
Net EPA edge (L17)+2.72 pts▲ LA
QB EPA/att edge (L8)+0.77 pts▲ LA
3rd & long conv edge+0.62 pts▲ LA
Net EPA edge (L8)+0.57 pts▲ LA
3rd & medium conv edge-0.55 pts▼ SF
away_pdm_matchup_17-0.52 pts▼ SF
QB EPA/att edge (L17)+0.44 pts▲ LA
EPA/play edge (L8)+0.40 pts▲ LA
DEF EPA allowed edge (L17)+0.32 pts▲ LA
QB INT rate edge+0.32 pts▲ LA
Rest
7d
 
7d
Venue
dome
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+3.5
O/U
48.5
ARI at LAC

ARI at LAC

2026 Week 1 · 2026-09-13 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -14 to +29
LAC Win Prob
70.8%
ARI Win Prob
29.2%
Projected
26–19
Exp. Margin
+7.8
Exp. Total
45.1
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesLACARI
EPA / play-0.065-0.014 ◀
QB EPA / att-0.007 ◀-0.065
Avg air yards8.0 yds ◀7.1 yds
Avg YAC4.8 yds5.0 yds ◀
Deep pass rate14.4%15.6% ◀
Pass rate52.5%60.4% ◀
Shotgun rate71.7% ◀71.7%
Rush EPA / carry+0.005 ◀-0.061
3rd down conv %43.4% ◀41.3%
Red zone TD %13.8%23.3% ◀
Turnover rate2.0%2.0% ◀
QB comp %59.7% ◀56.8%
QB YPA6.5 yds ◀5.8 yds
Sack rate allowed9.1%7.6% ◀
YPC (rush)4.6 yds ◀4.2 yds
EPA / play (L8)-0.141-0.022 ◀
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesLACARI
EPA allowed / play-0.101 ◀+0.089
Air yds allowed7.6 yds ◀7.9 yds
YPC allowed4.3 yds ◀4.3 yds
YAC allowed6.2 yds5.2 yds ◀
Deep rate allowed16.2% ◀16.9%
Sack rate gen7.9% ◀4.8%
TO forced rate2.4% ◀1.8%
RZ TD rate allowed13.4% ◀23.1%
Trending — Last 8 GamesLACARI
OFF EPA/play-0.141-0.022 ◀
QB EPA/att-0.101-0.024 ◀
Rush EPA/carry-0.050 ◀-0.058
DEF EPA allowed-0.117 ◀+0.173
Avg air yards8.6 yds ◀7.4 yds
3rd down conv%39.6% ◀37.5%
Turnover rate1.8% ◀2.2%
Pass EPA/att-0.204-0.015 ◀
Margin Model DriversLACARI
Net EPA edge (L17)+2.69 pts▲ LAC
QB EPA/att edge (L8)-0.75 pts▼ ARI
away_psl_matchup_17+0.64 pts▲ LAC
Net EPA edge (L8)+0.61 pts▲ LAC
away_pdr_matchup_17+0.46 pts▲ LAC
run_right_matchup_17-0.41 pts▼ ARI
pdm_matchup_17+0.34 pts▲ LAC
psm_matchup_17-0.28 pts▼ ARI
psl_matchup_17-0.25 pts▼ ARI
Sack rate gen edge+0.22 pts▲ LAC
Rest
7d
 
7d
Venue
dome
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+9.5
O/U
47.5
ATL at PIT

ATL at PIT

2026 Week 1 · 2026-09-13 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -18 to +22
PIT Win Prob
57.2%
ATL Win Prob
42.8%
Projected
22–21
Exp. Margin
+1.4
Exp. Total
42.1
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesPITATL
EPA / play-0.024 ◀-0.027
QB EPA / att-0.015+0.034 ◀
Avg air yards6.1 yds7.7 yds ◀
Avg YAC6.5 yds ◀5.5 yds
Deep pass rate14.0%18.6% ◀
Pass rate56.8% ◀52.9%
Shotgun rate67.4%80.7% ◀
Rush EPA / carry-0.013 ◀-0.057
3rd down conv %38.0% ◀32.3%
Red zone TD %18.2%25.6% ◀
Turnover rate1.8%1.8% ◀
QB comp %61.0%62.9% ◀
QB YPA6.3 yds6.3 yds ◀
Sack rate allowed4.8%4.5% ◀
YPC (rush)4.3 yds4.4 yds ◀
EPA / play (L8)-0.051-0.004 ◀
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesPITATL
EPA allowed / play+0.010-0.009 ◀
Air yds allowed7.0 yds ◀8.7 yds
YPC allowed4.1 yds ◀4.6 yds
YAC allowed5.3 yds4.7 yds ◀
Deep rate allowed13.9% ◀18.7%
Sack rate gen6.7%8.5% ◀
TO forced rate2.6% ◀2.2%
RZ TD rate allowed19.7%19.5% ◀
Trending — Last 8 GamesPITATL
OFF EPA/play-0.051-0.004 ◀
QB EPA/att-0.050-0.035 ◀
Rush EPA/carry-0.006 ◀-0.059
DEF EPA allowed+0.023-0.019 ◀
Avg air yards6.4 yds7.1 yds ◀
3rd down conv%38.1% ◀33.1%
Turnover rate1.6% ◀1.8%
Pass EPA/att-0.089+0.041 ◀
Margin Model DriversPITATL
away_pdr_matchup_17-1.18 pts▼ ATL
away_pdm_matchup_17-1.10 pts▼ ATL
Net EPA edge (L17)-0.85 pts▼ ATL
Net EPA edge (L8)-0.66 pts▼ ATL
Sack rate gen edge-0.55 pts▼ ATL
QB EPA/att edge (L8)-0.45 pts▼ ATL
QB completion % edge-0.41 pts▼ ATL
home_pace_17-0.33 pts▼ ATL
EPA/play edge (L17)-0.32 pts▼ ATL
pdl_matchup_17-0.32 pts▼ ATL
Rest
7d
 
7d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+3.5
O/U
42.5
BAL at IND

BAL at IND

2026 Week 1 · 2026-09-13 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -18 to +25
IND Win Prob
57.6%
BAL Win Prob
42.4%
Projected
23–20
Exp. Margin
+3.2
Exp. Total
44.2
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesINDBAL
EPA / play+0.074 ◀+0.037
QB EPA / att+0.050+0.102 ◀
Avg air yards7.9 yds8.3 yds ◀
Avg YAC5.1 yds5.2 yds ◀
Deep pass rate17.7% ◀17.0%
Pass rate55.1% ◀44.5%
Shotgun rate72.2% ◀65.1%
Rush EPA / carry+0.073 ◀+0.065
3rd down conv %42.4% ◀40.2%
Red zone TD %26.9% ◀18.4%
Turnover rate2.1% ◀2.4%
QB comp %61.5% ◀58.0%
QB YPA6.9 yds7.9 yds ◀
Sack rate allowed4.4% ◀8.7%
YPC (rush)4.5 yds5.3 yds ◀
EPA / play (L8)-0.071+0.044 ◀
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesINDBAL
EPA allowed / play+0.000 ◀+0.022
Air yds allowed7.9 yds ◀8.3 yds
YPC allowed3.9 yds ◀4.2 yds
YAC allowed4.9 yds4.9 yds ◀
Deep rate allowed18.1% ◀19.5%
Sack rate gen5.3% ◀4.5%
TO forced rate2.0%2.1% ◀
RZ TD rate allowed21.1%19.0% ◀
Trending — Last 8 GamesINDBAL
OFF EPA/play-0.071+0.044 ◀
QB EPA/att+0.129 ◀-0.056
Rush EPA/carry-0.069+0.135 ◀
DEF EPA allowed+0.050-0.030 ◀
Avg air yards7.4 yds8.8 yds ◀
3rd down conv%39.7%40.3% ◀
Turnover rate2.6% ◀2.8%
Pass EPA/att-0.087-0.048 ◀
Margin Model DriversINDBAL
Net EPA edge (L17)+1.76 pts▲ IND
QB EPA/att edge (L8)+0.87 pts▲ IND
Net EPA edge (L8)-0.84 pts▼ BAL
away_pdm_matchup_17-0.78 pts▼ BAL
QB completion % edge+0.35 pts▲ IND
pdm_matchup_17+0.34 pts▲ IND
Rush EPA/carry edge (L17)-0.31 pts▼ BAL
Sack rate gen edge+0.26 pts▲ IND
away_psl_matchup_17+0.25 pts▲ IND
3rd & medium conv edge+0.20 pts▲ IND
Rest
7d
 
7d
Venue
closed
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
-3.5
O/U
47.5
BUF at HOU

BUF at HOU

2026 Week 1 · 2026-09-13 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -21 to +22
HOU Win Prob
52.5%
BUF Win Prob
47.5%
Projected
23–22
Exp. Margin
+1.0
Exp. Total
46.2
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesHOUBUF
EPA / play-0.024+0.130 ◀
QB EPA / att+0.042+0.125 ◀
Avg air yards8.3 yds ◀7.3 yds
Avg YAC4.4 yds6.0 yds ◀
Deep pass rate16.3%16.9% ◀
Pass rate55.0% ◀47.4%
Shotgun rate61.1% ◀49.6%
Rush EPA / carry-0.117+0.057 ◀
3rd down conv %40.2%46.5% ◀
Red zone TD %24.8% ◀23.6%
Turnover rate1.7% ◀2.2%
QB comp %59.8%63.3% ◀
QB YPA6.9 yds7.2 yds ◀
Sack rate allowed4.3% ◀6.8%
YPC (rush)3.8 yds4.9 yds ◀
EPA / play (L8)-0.058+0.155 ◀
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesHOUBUF
EPA allowed / play-0.193 ◀-0.023
Air yds allowed8.2 yds7.5 yds ◀
YPC allowed3.9 yds ◀4.8 yds
YAC allowed5.1 yds4.7 yds ◀
Deep rate allowed19.5%17.9% ◀
Sack rate gen7.6% ◀5.3%
TO forced rate3.3% ◀2.3%
RZ TD rate allowed28.8%19.4% ◀
Trending — Last 8 GamesHOUBUF
OFF EPA/play-0.058+0.155 ◀
QB EPA/att+0.044+0.064 ◀
Rush EPA/carry-0.155+0.069 ◀
DEF EPA allowed-0.194 ◀-0.059
Avg air yards8.4 yds ◀6.7 yds
3rd down conv%44.6%49.1% ◀
Turnover rate2.0%1.7% ◀
Pass EPA/att+0.014+0.197 ◀
Margin Model DriversHOUBUF
run_left_matchup_17+1.01 pts▲ HOU
away_pdm_matchup_17-0.87 pts▼ BUF
away_psr_matchup_17+0.65 pts▲ HOU
QB EPA/att edge (L8)-0.64 pts▼ BUF
psm_matchup_17+0.49 pts▲ HOU
away_psl_matchup_17+0.48 pts▲ HOU
QB EPA/att edge (L17)-0.45 pts▼ BUF
Net EPA edge (L8)-0.45 pts▼ BUF
Net EPA edge (L17)+0.44 pts▲ HOU
TO forced rate edge+0.43 pts▲ HOU
Rest
7d
 
7d
Venue
closed
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
-1.5
O/U
44.5
CHI at CAR

CHI at CAR

2026 Week 1 · 2026-09-13 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -27 to +18
CAR Win Prob
35.3%
CHI Win Prob
64.7%
Projected
21–26
Exp. Margin
-4.8
Exp. Total
47.2
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesCARCHI
EPA / play-0.041+0.096 ◀
QB EPA / att-0.064+0.106 ◀
Avg air yards6.8 yds8.9 yds ◀
Avg YAC5.0 yds5.8 yds ◀
Deep pass rate14.8%23.4% ◀
Pass rate52.2%53.6% ◀
Shotgun rate66.2% ◀52.6%
Rush EPA / carry-0.060+0.056 ◀
3rd down conv %34.0%42.8% ◀
Red zone TD %19.7% ◀18.3%
Turnover rate2.3%1.1% ◀
QB comp %59.3% ◀54.9%
QB YPA5.9 yds6.8 yds ◀
Sack rate allowed5.9%3.0% ◀
YPC (rush)4.1 yds4.6 yds ◀
EPA / play (L8)-0.029+0.089 ◀
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesCARCHI
EPA allowed / play+0.076+0.009 ◀
Air yds allowed7.7 yds ◀8.6 yds
YPC allowed4.1 yds ◀4.7 yds
YAC allowed5.4 yds4.7 yds ◀
Deep rate allowed17.9% ◀18.1%
Sack rate gen5.2%5.5% ◀
TO forced rate2.1%3.2% ◀
RZ TD rate allowed21.3% ◀23.0%
Trending — Last 8 GamesCARCHI
OFF EPA/play-0.029+0.089 ◀
QB EPA/att+0.025+0.097 ◀
Rush EPA/carry-0.093+0.053 ◀
DEF EPA allowed+0.068+0.060 ◀
Avg air yards6.8 yds8.9 yds ◀
3rd down conv%32.4%44.0% ◀
Turnover rate2.3%1.3% ◀
Pass EPA/att+0.028+0.098 ◀
Margin Model DriversCARCHI
Net EPA edge (L17)-4.07 pts▼ CHI
QB EPA/att edge (L17)-0.75 pts▼ CHI
Net EPA edge (L8)-0.74 pts▼ CHI
QB EPA/att edge (L8)+0.34 pts▲ CAR
EPA/play edge (L17)-0.28 pts▼ CHI
Sack rate gen edge-0.27 pts▼ CHI
Rush EPA/carry edge (L17)-0.27 pts▼ CHI
QB completion % edge+0.26 pts▲ CAR
away_pdm_matchup_17+0.26 pts▲ CAR
away_pass_rate_17+0.25 pts▲ CAR
Rest
7d
 
7d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
-3.0
O/U
46.5
CLE at JAX

CLE at JAX

2026 Week 1 · 2026-09-13 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -11 to +33
JAX Win Prob
81.2%
CLE Win Prob
18.8%
Projected
26–14
Exp. Margin
+11.2
Exp. Total
41.4
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesJAXCLE
EPA / play+0.025 ◀-0.196
QB EPA / att+0.071 ◀-0.165
Avg air yards8.8 yds ◀6.9 yds
Avg YAC4.8 yds5.5 yds ◀
Deep pass rate20.2% ◀15.1%
Pass rate52.8%53.7% ◀
Shotgun rate61.5%67.1% ◀
Rush EPA / carry-0.037 ◀-0.050
3rd down conv %40.6% ◀33.1%
Red zone TD %22.5% ◀17.5%
Turnover rate1.8% ◀2.5%
QB comp %57.3% ◀53.9%
QB YPA6.8 yds ◀5.5 yds
Sack rate allowed5.9% ◀7.8%
YPC (rush)4.0 yds ◀3.9 yds
EPA / play (L8)+0.071 ◀-0.225
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesJAXCLE
EPA allowed / play-0.087-0.092 ◀
Air yds allowed8.0 yds7.4 yds ◀
YPC allowed3.9 yds ◀4.1 yds
YAC allowed4.3 yds ◀5.7 yds
Deep rate allowed18.2%16.1% ◀
Sack rate gen4.4%8.7% ◀
TO forced rate2.8% ◀1.8%
RZ TD rate allowed19.3% ◀22.7%
Trending — Last 8 GamesJAXCLE
OFF EPA/play+0.071 ◀-0.225
QB EPA/att+0.201 ◀-0.172
Rush EPA/carry-0.108 ◀-0.112
DEF EPA allowed-0.158 ◀-0.095
Avg air yards9.6 yds ◀7.3 yds
3rd down conv%43.1% ◀33.4%
Turnover rate2.1% ◀3.4%
Pass EPA/att+0.213 ◀-0.350
Margin Model DriversJAXCLE
Net EPA edge (L17)+3.89 pts▲ JAX
Net EPA edge (L8)+1.83 pts▲ JAX
QB EPA/att edge (L8)+1.42 pts▲ JAX
EPA/play edge (L17)+0.75 pts▲ JAX
away_pdm_matchup_17-0.72 pts▼ CLE
pdm_matchup_17+0.50 pts▲ JAX
EPA/play edge (L8)+0.44 pts▲ JAX
away_psm_matchup_17+0.44 pts▲ JAX
pdl_matchup_17+0.43 pts▲ JAX
Rush EPA/carry edge (L17)-0.43 pts▼ CLE
Rest
7d
 
7d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+8.5
O/U
40.5
DAL at NYG

DAL at NYG

2026 Week 1 · 2026-09-13 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -22 to +23
NYG Win Prob
51.3%
DAL Win Prob
48.7%
Projected
26–25
Exp. Margin
+0.6
Exp. Total
50.1
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesNYGDAL
EPA / play+0.006+0.095 ◀
QB EPA / att-0.053+0.168 ◀
Avg air yards8.3 yds ◀8.2 yds
Avg YAC5.5 yds ◀5.2 yds
Deep pass rate17.3%18.0% ◀
Pass rate48.8%56.9% ◀
Shotgun rate77.3% ◀62.5%
Rush EPA / carry+0.030 ◀-0.034
3rd down conv %38.7%40.6% ◀
Red zone TD %17.3%20.0% ◀
Turnover rate1.5% ◀2.0%
QB comp %56.8%64.1% ◀
QB YPA5.9 yds7.1 yds ◀
Sack rate allowed8.2%4.0% ◀
YPC (rush)4.3 yds4.6 yds ◀
EPA / play (L8)+0.023+0.068 ◀
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesNYGDAL
EPA allowed / play+0.084 ◀+0.170
Air yds allowed8.0 yds7.8 yds ◀
YPC allowed5.6 yds4.7 yds ◀
YAC allowed5.0 yds ◀5.8 yds
Deep rate allowed19.6%16.5% ◀
Sack rate gen6.4% ◀5.0%
TO forced rate1.5% ◀1.0%
RZ TD rate allowed27.1%23.8% ◀
Trending — Last 8 GamesNYGDAL
OFF EPA/play+0.023+0.068 ◀
QB EPA/att-0.062+0.153 ◀
Rush EPA/carry+0.043 ◀-0.088
DEF EPA allowed+0.037 ◀+0.179
Avg air yards7.9 yds8.7 yds ◀
3rd down conv%39.0% ◀38.0%
Turnover rate1.6% ◀2.2%
Pass EPA/att-0.069+0.157 ◀
Margin Model DriversNYGDAL
QB EPA/att edge (L8)-1.42 pts▼ DAL
QB EPA/att edge (L17)-1.08 pts▼ DAL
Net EPA edge (L8)+0.68 pts▲ NYG
psl_matchup_17+0.61 pts▲ NYG
psm_matchup_17-0.46 pts▼ DAL
pdm_matchup_17+0.39 pts▲ NYG
pdl_matchup_17-0.36 pts▼ DAL
away_pdr_matchup_17+0.36 pts▲ NYG
Sack rate gen edge+0.33 pts▲ NYG
QB completion % edge-0.33 pts▼ DAL
Rest
7d
 
7d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
-3.0
O/U
48.5
GB at MIN

GB at MIN

2026 Week 1 · 2026-09-13 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -22 to +20
MIN Win Prob
47.0%
GB Win Prob
53.0%
Projected
21–21
Exp. Margin
-0.9
Exp. Total
42.4
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesMINGB
EPA / play-0.134+0.114 ◀
QB EPA / att+0.093+0.226 ◀
Avg air yards7.6 yds8.6 yds ◀
Avg YAC5.0 yds5.0 yds ◀
Deep pass rate18.1%20.1% ◀
Pass rate51.2% ◀50.3%
Shotgun rate55.9%63.2% ◀
Rush EPA / carry-0.067-0.034 ◀
3rd down conv %31.4%48.2% ◀
Red zone TD %21.5%23.4% ◀
Turnover rate3.2%1.4% ◀
QB comp %65.2% ◀62.0%
QB YPA6.6 yds7.2 yds ◀
Sack rate allowed10.2%5.7% ◀
YPC (rush)4.5 yds ◀4.3 yds
EPA / play (L8)-0.146+0.079 ◀
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesMINGB
EPA allowed / play-0.113 ◀+0.029
Air yds allowed6.5 yds ◀7.5 yds
YPC allowed3.9 yds ◀4.2 yds
YAC allowed5.2 yds4.2 yds ◀
Deep rate allowed12.8% ◀17.4%
Sack rate gen9.5% ◀5.3%
TO forced rate2.3% ◀1.4%
RZ TD rate allowed14.4% ◀19.1%
Trending — Last 8 GamesMINGB
OFF EPA/play-0.146+0.079 ◀
QB EPA/att+0.070+0.207 ◀
Rush EPA/carry-0.006 ◀-0.083
DEF EPA allowed-0.212 ◀+0.052
Avg air yards6.7 yds9.3 yds ◀
3rd down conv%31.0%47.2% ◀
Turnover rate3.5%1.6% ◀
Pass EPA/att-0.353+0.136 ◀
Margin Model DriversMINGB
Net EPA edge (L17)-1.73 pts▼ GB
away_psr_matchup_17+1.24 pts▲ MIN
away_pdm_matchup_17-1.03 pts▼ GB
QB EPA/att edge (L8)-0.88 pts▼ GB
QB completion % edge+0.86 pts▲ MIN
QB EPA/att edge (L17)-0.65 pts▼ GB
psl_matchup_17+0.65 pts▲ MIN
EPA/play edge (L8)-0.42 pts▼ GB
Pass EPA/att edge (L8)+0.42 pts▲ MIN
psm_matchup_17-0.39 pts▼ GB
Rest
7d
 
7d
Venue
dome
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+1.5
O/U
46.5
MIA at LV

MIA at LV

2026 Week 1 · 2026-09-13 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -22 to +22
LV Win Prob
50.9%
MIA Win Prob
49.1%
Projected
21–21
Exp. Margin
-0.0
Exp. Total
42.5
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesLVMIA
EPA / play-0.228-0.018 ◀
QB EPA / att-0.011 ◀-0.041
Avg air yards6.0 yds7.1 yds ◀
Avg YAC5.2 yds5.7 yds ◀
Deep pass rate12.4%14.9% ◀
Pass rate54.9% ◀51.4%
Shotgun rate65.8%71.8% ◀
Rush EPA / carry-0.264-0.055 ◀
3rd down conv %32.8%34.2% ◀
Red zone TD %19.2%24.2% ◀
Turnover rate2.5% ◀2.7%
QB comp %61.1% ◀58.5%
QB YPA6.7 yds7.3 yds ◀
Sack rate allowed9.5%6.5% ◀
YPC (rush)3.4 yds4.6 yds ◀
EPA / play (L8)-0.268+0.004 ◀
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesLVMIA
EPA allowed / play+0.014 ◀+0.086
Air yds allowed7.7 yds7.3 yds ◀
YPC allowed3.8 yds ◀4.7 yds
YAC allowed5.1 yds ◀5.5 yds
Deep rate allowed15.9% ◀16.5%
Sack rate gen5.8%6.4% ◀
TO forced rate1.6%1.8% ◀
RZ TD rate allowed23.3% ◀27.5%
Trending — Last 8 GamesLVMIA
OFF EPA/play-0.268+0.004 ◀
QB EPA/att-0.007 ◀-0.041
Rush EPA/carry-0.248-0.051 ◀
DEF EPA allowed+0.008 ◀+0.046
Avg air yards6.4 yds7.6 yds ◀
3rd down conv%27.8%29.6% ◀
Turnover rate2.1% ◀2.3%
Pass EPA/att-0.295+0.025 ◀
Margin Model DriversLVMIA
Net EPA edge (L17)-3.54 pts▼ MIA
Net EPA edge (L8)-1.14 pts▼ MIA
psr_matchup_17-1.04 pts▼ MIA
run_left_matchup_17+0.85 pts▲ LV
away_pdm_matchup_17-0.56 pts▼ MIA
away_psm_matchup_17-0.49 pts▼ MIA
QB EPA/att edge (L8)+0.47 pts▲ LV
EPA/play edge (L8)-0.40 pts▼ MIA
QB completion % edge+0.38 pts▲ LV
away_pace_17+0.37 pts▲ LV
Rest
7d
 
7d
Venue
dome
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+3.5
O/U
40.5
NO at DET

NO at DET

2026 Week 1 · 2026-09-13 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -14 to +28
DET Win Prob
73.8%
NO Win Prob
26.2%
Projected
28–19
Exp. Margin
+7.3
Exp. Total
47.4
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesDETNO
EPA / play+0.080 ◀-0.085
QB EPA / att+0.195 ◀+0.000
Avg air yards6.5 yds8.2 yds ◀
Avg YAC6.3 yds ◀4.4 yds
Deep pass rate13.6%17.6% ◀
Pass rate55.3%55.4% ◀
Shotgun rate51.5%79.0% ◀
Rush EPA / carry-0.064 ◀-0.147
3rd down conv %38.9%38.9% ◀
Red zone TD %22.3% ◀20.6%
Turnover rate1.4% ◀2.3%
QB comp %64.7% ◀61.9%
QB YPA7.6 yds ◀6.9 yds
Sack rate allowed5.6% ◀7.1%
YPC (rush)4.5 yds ◀3.6 yds
EPA / play (L8)+0.007 ◀-0.003
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesDETNO
EPA allowed / play-0.006-0.060 ◀
Air yds allowed9.8 yds8.1 yds ◀
YPC allowed4.4 yds3.9 yds ◀
YAC allowed4.2 yds ◀5.2 yds
Deep rate allowed21.9%17.9% ◀
Sack rate gen7.4% ◀7.3%
TO forced rate1.7%2.1% ◀
RZ TD rate allowed19.4% ◀20.3%
Trending — Last 8 GamesDETNO
OFF EPA/play+0.007 ◀-0.003
QB EPA/att+0.087 ◀+0.059
Rush EPA/carry-0.100-0.097 ◀
DEF EPA allowed+0.034-0.190 ◀
Avg air yards6.5 yds8.3 yds ◀
3rd down conv%40.2%41.9% ◀
Turnover rate1.8%1.7% ◀
Pass EPA/att+0.077 ◀+0.054
Margin Model DriversDETNO
Net EPA edge (L17)+3.02 pts▲ DET
Net EPA edge (L8)-1.03 pts▼ NO
EPA/play edge (L17)+0.65 pts▲ DET
QB EPA/att edge (L17)+0.62 pts▲ DET
Rush EPA/carry edge (L17)+0.56 pts▲ DET
QB EPA/att edge (L8)-0.52 pts▼ NO
away_pdl_matchup_17+0.41 pts▲ DET
pdl_matchup_17+0.34 pts▲ DET
QB completion % edge+0.31 pts▲ DET
pdm_matchup_17+0.30 pts▲ DET
Rest
7d
 
7d
Venue
dome
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+7.0
O/U
49.5
NYJ at TEN

NYJ at TEN

2026 Week 1 · 2026-09-13 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -19 to +20
TEN Win Prob
55.0%
NYJ Win Prob
45.0%
Projected
20–20
Exp. Margin
+0.9
Exp. Total
41.4
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesTENNYJ
EPA / play-0.167-0.141 ◀
QB EPA / att-0.197-0.132 ◀
Avg air yards7.1 yds ◀6.8 yds
Avg YAC4.9 yds ◀4.6 yds
Deep pass rate15.8% ◀13.0%
Pass rate57.5% ◀48.8%
Shotgun rate73.1%73.9% ◀
Rush EPA / carry-0.072 ◀-0.087
3rd down conv %30.7%34.2% ◀
Red zone TD %22.6% ◀12.4%
Turnover rate2.1% ◀2.4%
QB comp %53.6%60.9% ◀
QB YPA5.3 yds6.1 yds ◀
Sack rate allowed8.0% ◀9.6%
YPC (rush)4.2 yds4.5 yds ◀
EPA / play (L8)-0.112 ◀-0.208
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesTENNYJ
EPA allowed / play+0.105 ◀+0.151
Air yds allowed7.7 yds7.2 yds ◀
YPC allowed4.4 yds4.3 yds ◀
YAC allowed5.8 yds ◀6.1 yds
Deep rate allowed17.0% ◀17.4%
Sack rate gen6.9% ◀4.2%
TO forced rate1.1% ◀0.3%
RZ TD rate allowed30.3%23.9% ◀
Trending — Last 8 GamesTENNYJ
OFF EPA/play-0.112 ◀-0.208
QB EPA/att-0.113 ◀-0.150
Rush EPA/carry+0.009 ◀-0.091
DEF EPA allowed+0.070 ◀+0.208
Avg air yards6.2 yds6.9 yds ◀
3rd down conv%34.4%35.2% ◀
Turnover rate1.3% ◀2.7%
Pass EPA/att-0.186 ◀-0.312
Margin Model DriversTENNYJ
Net EPA edge (L8)+1.74 pts▲ TEN
psl_matchup_17+0.71 pts▲ TEN
Net EPA edge (L17)+0.65 pts▲ TEN
psr_matchup_17-0.63 pts▼ NYJ
run_left_matchup_17+0.62 pts▲ TEN
EPA/play edge (L8)+0.50 pts▲ TEN
away_pdm_matchup_17-0.48 pts▼ NYJ
QB EPA/att edge (L17)-0.44 pts▼ NYJ
away_psm_matchup_17+0.42 pts▲ TEN
Red zone TD% edge+0.39 pts▲ TEN
Rest
7d
 
7d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+1.5
O/U
38.5
TB at CIN

TB at CIN

2026 Week 1 · 2026-09-13 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -22 to +23
CIN Win Prob
52.0%
TB Win Prob
48.0%
Projected
23–23
Exp. Margin
+0.7
Exp. Total
46.5
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesCINTB
EPA / play-0.023-0.000 ◀
QB EPA / att+0.126 ◀+0.005
Avg air yards7.3 yds8.0 yds ◀
Avg YAC4.6 yds5.6 yds ◀
Deep pass rate14.7%19.0% ◀
Pass rate61.2% ◀52.9%
Shotgun rate82.3% ◀65.1%
Rush EPA / carry+0.018 ◀+0.004
3rd down conv %43.3% ◀41.2%
Red zone TD %31.4% ◀21.1%
Turnover rate2.3%1.5% ◀
QB comp %65.1% ◀58.7%
QB YPA6.8 yds ◀6.4 yds
Sack rate allowed5.3% ◀5.8%
YPC (rush)4.1 yds ◀4.0 yds
EPA / play (L8)-0.003 ◀-0.036
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesCINTB
EPA allowed / play+0.122+0.022 ◀
Air yds allowed7.6 yds ◀8.0 yds
YPC allowed5.1 yds4.2 yds ◀
YAC allowed7.1 yds6.0 yds ◀
Deep rate allowed16.3% ◀16.7%
Sack rate gen6.3% ◀5.7%
TO forced rate2.1%2.2% ◀
RZ TD rate allowed22.4% ◀26.6%
Trending — Last 8 GamesCINTB
OFF EPA/play-0.003 ◀-0.036
QB EPA/att+0.106 ◀-0.112
Rush EPA/carry+0.012+0.022 ◀
DEF EPA allowed+0.012 ◀+0.092
Avg air yards7.4 yds7.6 yds ◀
3rd down conv%47.2% ◀45.7%
Turnover rate1.9% ◀2.3%
Pass EPA/att+0.001 ◀-0.110
Margin Model DriversCINTB
Net EPA edge (L17)-2.78 pts▼ TB
QB EPA/att edge (L8)+1.09 pts▲ CIN
away_pdm_matchup_17-0.78 pts▼ TB
psr_matchup_17-0.63 pts▼ TB
QB completion % edge+0.46 pts▲ CIN
QB EPA/att edge (L17)+0.45 pts▲ CIN
Net EPA edge (L8)+0.43 pts▲ CIN
home_pace_17-0.39 pts▼ TB
away_psr_matchup_17-0.34 pts▼ TB
pdm_matchup_17+0.32 pts▲ CIN
Rest
7d
 
7d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+3.5
O/U
50.5
WAS at PHI

WAS at PHI

2026 Week 1 · 2026-09-13 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -12 to +31
PHI Win Prob
79.0%
WAS Win Prob
21.0%
Projected
26–15
Exp. Margin
+9.7
Exp. Total
42.0
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesPHIWAS
EPA / play+0.018 ◀+0.007
QB EPA / att+0.081 ◀+0.032
Avg air yards9.1 yds ◀8.5 yds
Avg YAC4.3 yds5.2 yds ◀
Deep pass rate20.1% ◀19.1%
Pass rate51.1% ◀48.2%
Shotgun rate77.3%87.7% ◀
Rush EPA / carry-0.047+0.014 ◀
3rd down conv %34.5%35.7% ◀
Red zone TD %19.7%27.9% ◀
Turnover rate1.4% ◀2.3%
QB comp %60.9% ◀59.0%
QB YPA6.6 yds ◀6.3 yds
Sack rate allowed5.9% ◀6.8%
YPC (rush)4.1 yds4.8 yds ◀
EPA / play (L8)+0.004 ◀-0.008
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesPHIWAS
EPA allowed / play-0.082 ◀+0.143
Air yds allowed8.1 yds8.0 yds ◀
YPC allowed4.0 yds ◀4.7 yds
YAC allowed5.5 yds ◀6.4 yds
Deep rate allowed17.3%17.0% ◀
Sack rate gen6.8% ◀6.6%
TO forced rate2.1% ◀1.1%
RZ TD rate allowed18.2% ◀23.7%
Trending — Last 8 GamesPHIWAS
OFF EPA/play+0.004 ◀-0.008
QB EPA/att+0.031 ◀-0.051
Rush EPA/carry-0.019+0.002 ◀
DEF EPA allowed-0.104 ◀+0.172
Avg air yards8.8 yds9.0 yds ◀
3rd down conv%40.5% ◀32.7%
Turnover rate2.1% ◀2.2%
Pass EPA/att+0.063 ◀-0.003
Margin Model DriversPHIWAS
Net EPA edge (L17)+2.52 pts▲ PHI
Net EPA edge (L8)+1.61 pts▲ PHI
psl_matchup_17+0.59 pts▲ PHI
Rush EPA/carry edge (L17)-0.58 pts▼ WAS
away_pdm_matchup_17+0.44 pts▲ PHI
QB EPA/att edge (L8)+0.40 pts▲ PHI
away_run_right_matchup_17-0.36 pts▼ WAS
away_psm_matchup_17+0.33 pts▲ PHI
pdr_matchup_17+0.29 pts▲ PHI
QB EPA/att edge (L17)+0.28 pts▲ PHI
Rest
7d
 
7d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+5.5
O/U
44.5
DEN at KC

DEN at KC

2026 Week 1 · 2026-09-14 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -25 to +18
KC Win Prob
39.9%
DEN Win Prob
60.1%
Projected
20–23
Exp. Margin
-3.3
Exp. Total
43.6
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesKCDEN
EPA / play+0.021+0.024 ◀
QB EPA / att+0.114 ◀+0.107
Avg air yards7.7 yds ◀7.4 yds
Avg YAC5.6 yds ◀5.5 yds
Deep pass rate17.8% ◀17.2%
Pass rate56.2%57.5% ◀
Shotgun rate80.8% ◀66.9%
Rush EPA / carry+0.040 ◀-0.034
3rd down conv %37.3%41.2% ◀
Red zone TD %17.2%20.4% ◀
Turnover rate1.4%1.3% ◀
QB comp %58.0%60.5% ◀
QB YPA6.7 yds ◀6.3 yds
Sack rate allowed6.8%3.9% ◀
YPC (rush)4.3 yds ◀4.2 yds
EPA / play (L8)-0.134+0.013 ◀
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesKCDEN
EPA allowed / play-0.041-0.092 ◀
Air yds allowed6.6 yds ◀8.5 yds
YPC allowed4.1 yds3.9 yds ◀
YAC allowed5.4 yds4.4 yds ◀
Deep rate allowed15.2% ◀17.8%
Sack rate gen6.1%9.8% ◀
TO forced rate1.5% ◀1.5%
RZ TD rate allowed19.9%14.6% ◀
Trending — Last 8 GamesKCDEN
OFF EPA/play-0.134+0.013 ◀
QB EPA/att+0.086+0.130 ◀
Rush EPA/carry-0.048 ◀-0.064
DEF EPA allowed-0.028-0.067 ◀
Avg air yards7.0 yds ◀6.0 yds
3rd down conv%32.6%43.8% ◀
Turnover rate1.9%1.6% ◀
Pass EPA/att-0.222+0.048 ◀
Margin Model DriversKCDEN
away_pdm_matchup_17-1.03 pts▼ DEN
Net EPA edge (L17)-0.96 pts▼ DEN
Net EPA edge (L8)-0.81 pts▼ DEN
pdm_matchup_17-0.39 pts▼ DEN
Rush EPA/carry edge (L17)+0.37 pts▲ KC
Sack rate gen edge-0.33 pts▼ DEN
away_psl_matchup_17+0.33 pts▲ KC
QB EPA/att edge (L8)-0.27 pts▼ DEN
away_psm_matchup_17-0.25 pts▼ DEN
QB completion % edge-0.16 pts▼ DEN
Rest
7d
 
7d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+2.5
O/U
43.5
Download week 1 projections (CSV)
Model output, not advice. These are simulated distributions from a statistical model, published to record how it performs. Nothing here is a betting recommendation. Lines shown are the closing numbers carried in the underlying data and may differ from any book. 21+; if gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-522-4700.