Track record

2025 holdout the honest number

By season

Winner and Margin MAE each show the model first and the closing market second. ATS counts the side the model's projected margin takes against the closing spread; O/U the same against the closing total. Pushes are excluded from the percentage.

Are the probabilities honest?

Every 2025 game

Date	Matchup	Model	Close	Actual	Home WP	ATS
09-04	DAL at PHI	+15.9	+8.5	+4	89%	LOSS
09-05	KC at LAC	+1.6	-3.0	+6	52%	WIN
09-07	CAR at JAX	+4.1	+4.5	+16	62%	LOSS
09-07	ARI at NO	-6.8	-6.0	-7	30%	WIN
09-07	HOU at LA	+4.8	+3.5	+5	62%	WIN
09-07	MIA at IND	-2.1	+1.5	+25	44%	LOSS
09-07	PIT at NYJ	+2.3	-3.0	-2	56%	WIN
09-07	DET at GB	+1.1	+1.5	+14	52%	LOSS
09-07	SF at SEA	+1.3	-2.5	-4	50%	LOSS
09-07	LV at NE	-1.2	+2.5	-7	46%	WIN
09-07	TB at ATL	-7.2	-1.5	-3	30%	WIN
09-07	BAL at BUF	-5.1	-1.5	+1	37%	LOSS
09-07	NYG at WAS	+12.3	+6.0	+15	83%	WIN
09-07	CIN at CLE	-9.7	-5.5	-1	22%	LOSS
09-07	TEN at DEN	+11.5	+8.5	+8	81%	LOSS
09-08	MIN at CHI	-2.3	-1.5	-3	45%	WIN
09-11	WAS at GB	+4.9	+3.5	+9	61%	WIN
09-14	CLE at BAL	+14.6	+12.5	+24	85%	WIN
09-14	CHI at DET	+10.7	+6.0	+31	77%	WIN
09-14	LA at TEN	-8.9	-5.5	-14	26%	WIN
09-14	DEN at IND	-6.4	-2.5	+1	30%	LOSS
09-14	SEA at PIT	-0.9	+3.5	-14	47%	WIN
09-14	SF at NO	-3.6	-3.0	-5	40%	WIN
09-14	JAX at CIN	+8.3	+3.5	+4	72%	WIN
09-14	BUF at NYJ	-7.2	-6.0	-20	30%	WIN
09-14	CAR at ARI	+8.0	+7.0	+5	73%	LOSS
09-14	NYG at DAL	+1.3	+4.5	+3	56%	WIN
09-14	ATL at MIN	+0.6	+3.5	-16	50%	WIN
09-14	NE at MIA	+7.7	+1.5	-6	72%	LOSS
09-14	PHI at KC	-7.8	-1.5	-3	31%	WIN
09-15	TB at HOU	-4.4	+2.5	-1	38%	WIN
09-15	LAC at LV	-2.8	-3.5	-11	42%	LOSS
09-18	MIA at BUF	+8.3	+12.5	+10	75%	WIN
09-21	ARI at SF	+0.6	+1.5	+1	52%	WIN
09-21	ATL at CAR	-3.4	-5.5	+30	37%	WIN
09-21	NO at SEA	+9.5	+7.5	+31	77%	WIN
09-21	HOU at JAX	+0.0	+1.5	+7	51%	LOSS
09-21	DEN at LAC	+1.1	+2.5	+3	51%	LOSS
09-21	LA at PHI	+8.6	+3.5	+7	75%	WIN
09-21	CIN at MIN	-2.1	+3.0	+38	45%	LOSS
09-21	IND at TEN	-3.5	-6.0	-21	41%	LOSS
09-21	GB at CLE	-8.2	-8.5	+3	30%	WIN
09-21	NYJ at TB	+12.1	+6.5	+2	83%	LOSS
09-21	PIT at NE	+1.3	-1.5	-7	56%	LOSS
09-21	LV at WAS	+6.1	+2.5	+17	68%	WIN
09-21	DAL at CHI	+3.6	-1.5	+17	59%	WIN
09-21	KC at NYG	-5.7	-6.0	-13	34%	LOSS
09-22	DET at BAL	+5.6	+4.5	-8	67%	LOSS
09-25	SEA at ARI	+3.4	-1.5	-3	60%	LOSS
09-28	WAS at ATL	-2.8	+2.5	+7	42%	LOSS
09-28	PHI at TB	+3.6	-3.5	-6	61%	LOSS
09-28	CHI at LV	+2.7	+1.5	-1	56%	LOSS
09-28	IND at LA	+5.1	+3.5	+7	64%	WIN
09-28	LAC at NYG	-9.2	-6.0	+3	20%	LOSS
09-28	CLE at DET	+17.2	+10.0	+24	92%	WIN
09-28	NO at BUF	+18.7	+15.5	+12	94%	LOSS
09-28	CAR at NE	+4.0	+5.5	+29	62%	LOSS
09-28	GB at DAL	-8.1	-7.0	+0	28%	LOSS
09-28	TEN at HOU	+9.8	+7.5	+26	80%	WIN
09-28	MIN at PIT	+1.2	-2.5	+3	52%	WIN
09-28	BAL at KC	-6.8	-2.5	+17	33%	LOSS
09-28	JAX at SF	+9.1	+3.5	-5	74%	LOSS
09-29	NYJ at MIA	+5.8	+2.5	+6	67%	WIN
09-29	CIN at DEN	+8.4	+7.5	+25	73%	WIN
10-02	SF at LA	+4.5	+8.5	-3	61%	WIN
10-05	MIN at CLE	-5.8	-3.5	-4	32%	WIN
10-05	WAS at LAC	+5.3	+2.5	-17	65%	LOSS
10-05	HOU at BAL	+6.7	-2.5	-34	68%	LOSS
10-05	DEN at PHI	+4.2	+3.5	-4	61%	LOSS
10-05	TB at SEA	-3.2	+3.5	-3	40%	WIN
10-05	LV at IND	+3.6	+7.0	+34	60%	LOSS
10-05	NE at BUF	+10.9	+7.5	-3	80%	LOSS
10-05	NYG at NO	+0.2	+1.5	+12	52%	LOSS
10-05	DET at CIN	-6.6	-10.5	-13	33%	LOSS
10-05	DAL at NYJ	+3.7	+1.5	-15	61%	LOSS
10-05	TEN at ARI	+14.9	+7.5	-1	86%	LOSS
10-05	MIA at CAR	-4.8	-1.5	+3	34%	LOSS
10-06	KC at JAX	-1.3	-3.5	+3	44%	WIN
10-09	PHI at NYG	-11.1	-7.0	+17	22%	LOSS
10-12	DAL at CAR	+0.4	-3.0	+3	51%	WIN
10-12	CIN at GB	+13.6	+14.0	+9	89%	WIN
10-12	DEN at NYJ	-9.2	-7.5	-2	25%	LOSS
10-12	CLE at PIT	+7.7	+5.5	+14	70%	WIN
10-12	SF at TB	+9.0	+3.5	+11	76%	WIN
10-12	NE at NO	-3.1	-3.5	-6	41%	LOSS
10-12	SEA at JAX	-2.1	-1.5	-8	42%	WIN
10-12	DET at KC	-3.5	+2.5	+13	41%	LOSS
10-12	ARI at IND	+2.8	+8.5	+4	58%	WIN
10-12	TEN at LV	+9.6	+3.5	+10	78%	WIN
10-12	LA at BAL	+3.0	-7.0	-14	59%	LOSS
10-12	LAC at MIA	+0.7	-3.5	-2	50%	WIN
10-13	BUF at ATL	-5.1	-3.5	+10	39%	LOSS
10-13	CHI at WAS	+9.9	+5.5	-1	75%	LOSS
10-16	PIT at CIN	-3.4	-5.5	+2	40%	WIN
10-19	CAR at NYJ	-1.6	+1.5	-7	45%	WIN
10-19	NYG at DEN	+11.9	+7.5	+1	84%	LOSS
10-19	LA at JAX	-4.3	-3.0	-28	37%	WIN
10-19	GB at ARI	-3.2	-7.0	-4	39%	WIN
10-19	ATL at SF	+0.1	+1.5	+10	51%	LOSS
10-19	NE at TEN	-4.8	-6.5	-18	34%	LOSS
10-19	MIA at CLE	-2.5	+2.5	+25	40%	LOSS
10-19	NO at CHI	+7.7	+4.5	+12	71%	WIN
10-19	LV at KC	+9.8	+13.5	+31	76%	LOSS
10-19	PHI at MIN	-2.5	-2.5	-6	43%	WIN
10-19	IND at LAC	+1.2	+2.5	-14	50%	WIN
10-19	WAS at DAL	-2.3	+1.5	+22	42%	LOSS
10-20	HOU at SEA	+2.9	+3.0	+8	58%	LOSS
10-20	TB at DET	+2.8	+6.0	+15	58%	LOSS
10-23	MIN at LAC	+3.5	+3.0	+27	59%	WIN
10-26	SF at HOU	+5.0	+2.5	+11	62%	WIN
10-26	CLE at NE	+10.7	+7.0	+19	81%	WIN
10-26	NYJ at CIN	+1.9	+5.5	-1	52%	WIN
10-26	MIA at ATL	+5.1	+7.0	-24	63%	WIN
10-26	TB at NO	-9.1	-4.5	-20	23%	WIN
10-26	NYG at PHI	+11.6	+7.0	+18	82%	WIN
10-26	CHI at BAL	+9.0	+2.5	+14	76%	WIN
10-26	TEN at IND	+16.8	+15.5	+24	91%	WIN
10-26	BUF at CAR	-7.2	-7.0	-31	28%	WIN
10-26	GB at PIT	-7.1	-3.0	-10	29%	WIN
10-26	DAL at DEN	+7.4	+3.5	+20	69%	WIN
10-27	WAS at KC	+7.2	+10.5	+21	68%	LOSS
10-30	BAL at MIA	-5.8	-7.5	-22	35%	LOSS
11-02	SEA at WAS	-2.0	-2.5	-24	42%	LOSS
11-02	SF at NYG	-2.9	-2.5	-10	43%	WIN
11-02	MIN at DET	+16.2	+9.5	-3	90%	LOSS
11-02	IND at PIT	-6.1	-3.5	+7	32%	LOSS
11-02	DEN at HOU	-2.1	+1.5	-3	41%	WIN
11-02	ATL at NE	+5.8	+5.5	+1	66%	LOSS
11-02	LAC at TEN	-10.3	-10.0	-7	26%	LOSS
11-02	NO at LA	+16.8	+14.0	+24	91%	WIN
11-02	JAX at LV	+0.5	-2.5	-1	51%	WIN
11-02	CHI at CIN	+4.2	-3.0	-5	64%	LOSS
11-02	KC at BUF	+4.4	-2.5	+7	62%	WIN
11-02	CAR at GB	+13.4	+12.5	-3	86%	LOSS
11-03	ARI at DAL	+2.0	+3.5	-10	54%	WIN
11-06	LV at DEN	+12.1	+9.5	+3	84%	LOSS
11-09	DET at WAS	-8.3	-8.5	-22	28%	LOSS
11-09	BUF at MIA	-5.2	-8.5	+17	37%	WIN
11-09	PIT at LAC	+7.1	+3.0	+15	70%	WIN
11-09	BAL at MIN	-7.3	-4.5	-8	29%	WIN
11-09	NYG at CHI	+3.7	+4.5	+4	60%	WIN
11-09	ATL at IND	+9.1	+6.5	+6	77%	LOSS
11-09	CLE at NYJ	+4.3	-1.5	+7	61%	WIN
11-09	NE at TB	+6.4	+2.5	-5	70%	LOSS
11-09	NO at CAR	+8.4	+5.5	-10	74%	LOSS
11-09	JAX at HOU	+6.4	-1.5	+7	70%	WIN
11-09	LA at SF	-4.5	-5.5	-16	36%	LOSS
11-09	ARI at SEA	+5.7	+7.0	+22	66%	LOSS
11-10	PHI at GB	+4.8	+1.5	-3	62%	LOSS
11-13	NYJ at NE	+10.3	+12.5	+13	78%	LOSS
11-16	BAL at CLE	-5.8	-7.5	-7	32%	WIN
11-16	SEA at LA	+5.1	+3.0	+2	68%	LOSS
11-16	GB at NYG	-8.2	-7.5	-7	26%	LOSS
11-16	SF at ARI	+1.9	-3.5	-19	54%	LOSS
11-16	CHI at MIN	-2.6	+3.0	-2	44%	WIN
11-16	DET at PHI	+2.4	+2.5	+7	55%	LOSS
11-16	WAS at MIA	+1.6	+2.5	+3	53%	LOSS
11-16	KC at DEN	+2.3	-3.5	+3	56%	WIN
11-16	CAR at ATL	+6.0	+4.5	-3	64%	LOSS
11-16	CIN at PIT	+1.6	+5.5	+22	56%	LOSS
11-16	HOU at TEN	-10.8	-5.5	-3	20%	LOSS
11-16	TB at BUF	+2.3	+6.0	+12	57%	LOSS
11-16	LAC at JAX	-4.0	-3.0	+29	36%	LOSS
11-17	DAL at LV	-1.9	-3.5	-17	45%	LOSS
11-20	BUF at HOU	-0.9	-5.5	+4	49%	WIN
11-23	IND at KC	+3.0	+3.5	+3	60%	WIN
11-23	PIT at CHI	+4.9	+3.0	+3	68%	PUSH
11-23	ATL at NO	-1.5	+1.5	-14	45%	WIN
11-23	NYG at DET	+12.6	+14.0	+7	84%	WIN
11-23	TB at LA	+4.0	+7.0	+27	64%	LOSS
11-23	NYJ at BAL	+10.6	+14.0	+13	80%	WIN
11-23	SEA at TEN	-10.6	-12.5	-6	20%	WIN
11-23	CLE at LV	+3.7	+3.0	-14	62%	LOSS
11-23	NE at CIN	-6.1	-7.5	-6	29%	WIN
11-23	JAX at ARI	+1.7	-2.5	-3	53%	LOSS
11-23	MIN at GB	+15.2	+6.5	+17	88%	WIN
11-23	PHI at DAL	-3.4	-3.0	+3	40%	LOSS
11-24	CAR at SF	+8.0	+7.5	+11	74%	WIN
11-27	KC at DAL	-0.6	-3.5	+3	47%	WIN
11-27	GB at DET	+3.2	+2.5	-7	62%	LOSS
11-27	CIN at BAL	+6.3	+7.0	-18	66%	WIN
11-28	CHI at PHI	+6.0	+7.0	-9	66%	WIN
11-30	BUF at PIT	-4.2	-3.0	-19	38%	WIN
11-30	LV at LAC	+8.6	+10.0	+17	72%	LOSS
11-30	DEN at WAS	-4.1	-6.5	-1	36%	WIN
11-30	LA at CAR	-8.6	-10.0	+3	25%	WIN
11-30	NO at MIA	+6.6	+5.5	+4	68%	LOSS
11-30	ATL at NYJ	-3.8	-3.0	+3	37%	LOSS
11-30	JAX at TEN	-5.2	-6.0	-22	34%	LOSS
11-30	SF at CLE	-2.4	-5.5	-18	40%	LOSS
11-30	HOU at IND	+5.1	+3.0	-4	64%	LOSS
11-30	MIN at SEA	+9.0	+12.5	+26	77%	LOSS
11-30	ARI at TB	+6.4	+4.5	+3	69%	LOSS
12-01	NYG at NE	+11.2	+7.0	+18	78%	WIN
12-04	DAL at DET	+5.5	+3.5	+14	67%	WIN
12-07	WAS at MIN	-3.8	-1.5	+31	40%	LOSS
12-07	CIN at BUF	+5.3	+6.0	+5	66%	WIN
12-07	SEA at ATL	-5.5	-7.0	-28	35%	LOSS
12-07	IND at JAX	+3.3	-2.5	+17	60%	WIN
12-07	TEN at CLE	+7.5	+4.5	-2	69%	LOSS
12-07	HOU at KC	+5.6	+4.5	-10	65%	LOSS
12-07	NO at TB	+11.1	+7.5	-4	82%	LOSS
12-07	DEN at LV	-9.1	-8.5	-7	26%	LOSS
12-07	LA at ARI	-5.8	-9.5	-28	35%	LOSS
12-07	MIA at NYJ	-1.9	-2.5	-24	42%	LOSS
12-07	PIT at BAL	+7.9	+5.5	-5	72%	LOSS
12-07	CHI at GB	+12.1	+6.5	+7	84%	WIN
12-08	PHI at LAC	+0.5	-1.5	+3	52%	WIN
12-11	ATL at TB	+5.2	+6.0	-1	65%	WIN
12-14	NYJ at JAX	+12.8	+13.5	+28	84%	LOSS
12-14	WAS at NYG	+0.2	+2.5	-8	51%	WIN
12-14	BUF at NE	+2.4	-2.5	-4	56%	LOSS
12-14	TEN at SF	+12.3	+12.5	+13	83%	LOSS
12-14	CAR at NO	+2.4	-2.5	+3	57%	WIN
12-14	LAC at KC	+3.0	+5.5	-3	59%	WIN
12-14	MIN at DAL	+8.5	+5.5	-8	72%	LOSS
12-14	IND at SEA	+3.2	+13.5	+2	59%	WIN
12-14	ARI at HOU	+7.3	+10.5	+20	71%	LOSS
12-14	LV at PHI	+10.4	+12.5	+31	78%	LOSS
12-14	DET at LA	+6.0	+5.5	+7	69%	WIN
12-14	GB at DEN	+3.6	-1.5	+8	59%	WIN
12-14	CLE at CHI	+10.7	+7.5	+28	81%	WIN
12-14	BAL at CIN	-1.7	-2.5	-24	43%	LOSS
12-15	MIA at PIT	+0.7	+3.0	+13	51%	LOSS
12-18	LA at SEA	+4.5	+1.5	+1	64%	LOSS
12-20	PHI at WAS	-6.7	-7.0	-11	31%	LOSS
12-20	GB at CHI	-4.0	+1.5	+6	39%	LOSS
12-21	KC at TEN	-6.3	-3.5	+17	32%	LOSS
12-21	JAX at DEN	+8.4	+3.5	-14	74%	LOSS
12-21	LV at HOU	+12.9	+14.5	+2	83%	WIN
12-21	BUF at CLE	-6.5	-10.5	-3	33%	WIN
12-21	PIT at DET	+8.4	+7.5	-5	77%	LOSS
12-21	ATL at ARI	-0.9	-2.5	-7	45%	LOSS
12-21	LAC at DAL	-4.2	+1.5	-17	39%	WIN
12-21	NE at BAL	-1.3	+3.5	-4	43%	WIN
12-21	CIN at MIA	+1.4	-3.5	-24	56%	LOSS
12-21	TB at CAR	-1.2	-3.0	+3	44%	WIN
12-21	NYJ at NO	+7.9	+6.5	+23	74%	WIN
12-21	MIN at NYG	+2.7	-2.5	-3	56%	LOSS
12-22	SF at IND	+5.4	-4.5	-21	63%	LOSS
12-25	DET at MIN	-8.9	-7.0	+13	27%	LOSS
12-25	DAL at WAS	-4.6	-8.5	-7	33%	WIN
12-25	DEN at KC	-4.9	-13.5	-7	33%	WIN
12-27	BAL at GB	+2.8	+2.5	-17	56%	LOSS
12-27	HOU at LAC	+1.2	+1.5	-4	53%	WIN
12-28	NYG at LV	-0.8	-3.0	-24	51%	LOSS
12-28	JAX at IND	+2.4	-3.5	-6	56%	LOSS
12-28	TB at MIA	+1.4	-5.5	+3	52%	WIN
12-28	CHI at SF	+3.8	+3.5	+4	59%	WIN
12-28	SEA at CAR	-7.1	-6.5	-17	28%	WIN
12-28	NO at TEN	-5.9	-1.5	-8	32%	WIN
12-28	PIT at CLE	-5.8	-4.5	+7	34%	LOSS
12-28	NE at NYJ	-8.8	-12.5	-32	23%	LOSS
12-28	PHI at BUF	+1.0	+3.0	-1	51%	WIN
12-28	ARI at CIN	+1.8	+7.0	+23	53%	LOSS
12-29	LA at ATL	-8.6	-7.5	+3	29%	LOSS
01-03	CAR at TB	+2.7	+3.0	+2	56%	WIN
01-03	SEA at SF	-0.2	-2.5	-10	49%	LOSS
01-04	MIA at NE	+10.5	+14.0	+28	81%	LOSS
01-04	NO at ATL	+2.0	+4.5	+2	55%	WIN
01-04	ARI at LA	+12.6	+14.5	+17	84%	LOSS
01-04	IND at HOU	+10.8	+9.5	+8	81%	LOSS
01-04	GB at MIN	+1.4	+12.5	+13	54%	LOSS
01-04	WAS at PHI	+12.5	+3.0	-7	85%	LOSS
01-04	TEN at JAX	+15.3	+12.5	+34	88%	WIN
01-04	DET at CHI	+0.4	+3.5	-3	50%	WIN
01-04	BAL at PIT	+2.7	-4.5	+2	60%	WIN
01-04	CLE at CIN	+5.8	+9.5	-2	66%	WIN
01-04	KC at LV	-3.0	-3.5	+2	42%	WIN
01-04	DAL at NYG	-3.1	-3.0	+17	40%	LOSS
01-04	LAC at DEN	+9.3	+14.5	+16	77%	LOSS
01-04	NYJ at BUF	+16.5	+12.5	+27	91%	WIN