2026 results

Every projection published before kickoff, graded against the final score and the closing market. Frozen at publication — these are not re-fitted after the fact.

Graded
121
2026 games completed
Winner picked
53.7%
market 62.8%
Margin MAE
10.40
market 9.71
ATS
53-63-5 · 45.7%
52.4% breaks even
O/U
60-61 · 49.6%
totals
90% interval
90.1%
target 90%

Week 1 56% winners · ATS 5-10 · margin MAE 13.0

DateMatchupProjectedFinalPickCloseATS
09-09 NE at SEA 19.9–23.4 10–13 SEA HIT +3.0 PUSH
09-10 SF at LA 22.9–30.3 27–7 LA MISS +3.5 LOSS
09-13 ARI at LAC 18.6–26.5 26–14 LAC MISS +9.5 WIN
09-13 ATL at PIT 20.3–21.8 13–20 PIT HIT +3.5 LOSS
09-13 BAL at IND 20.5–23.7 41–23 IND MISS -3.5 LOSS
09-13 BUF at HOU 22.6–23.6 36–31 HOU MISS -1.5 LOSS
09-13 CHI at CAR 26.0–21.2 59–37 CHI HIT -3.0 WIN
09-13 CLE at JAX 15.1–26.3 10–34 JAX HIT +8.5 WIN
09-13 DAL at NYG 24.8–25.4 20–28 NYG HIT -3.0 WIN
09-13 GB at MIN 21.7–20.7 22–39 GB MISS +1.5 LOSS
09-13 MIA at LV 21.2–21.2 13–27 LV HIT +3.5 LOSS
09-13 NO at DET 20.0–27.4 30–31 DET HIT +7.0 LOSS
09-13 NYJ at TEN 20.2–21.1 23–10 TEN MISS +1.5 WIN
09-13 TB at CIN 22.9–23.6 27–33 CIN HIT +3.5 LOSS
09-13 WAS at PHI 16.1–25.9 22–24 PHI HIT +5.5 LOSS
09-14 DEN at KC 23.4–20.2 10–31 DEN MISS +2.5 LOSS

Week 2 56% winners · ATS 8-8 · margin MAE 12.6

DateMatchupProjectedFinalPickCloseATS
09-17 DET at BUF 24.8–25.8 31–41 BUF HIT +4.5 LOSS
09-20 CAR at ATL 18.1–24.7 34–3 ATL MISS -1.5 LOSS
09-20 CIN at HOU 19.6–27.1 20–6 HOU MISS +3.0 LOSS
09-20 CLE at TB 17.5–23.5 23–19 TB MISS +8.5 WIN
09-20 GB at NYJ 26.7–18.4 20–17 GB HIT -4.5 LOSS
09-20 IND at KC 20.3–24.1 30–33 KC HIT +6.5 WIN
09-20 JAX at DEN 22.4–21.9 13–20 JAX MISS +2.5 LOSS
09-20 LV at LAC 18.1–24.4 26–14 LAC MISS +7.0 WIN
09-20 MIA at SF 19.6–25.9 13–35 SF HIT +13.5 LOSS
09-20 MIN at CHI 21.4–23.6 9–3 CHI MISS +5.5 WIN
09-20 NO at BAL 19.6–23.5 24–17 BAL MISS +8.5 WIN
09-20 PHI at TEN 25.3–17.1 24–20 PHI HIT -7.0 LOSS
09-20 PIT at NE 17.4–25.2 3–20 NE HIT +5.5 WIN
09-20 SEA at ARI 26.1–18.6 31–7 SEA HIT -4.5 WIN
09-20 WAS at DAL 21.2–27.3 20–37 DAL HIT +3.5 WIN
09-21 NYG at LA 22.4–28.9 6–28 LA HIT +7.0 LOSS

Week 3 62% winners · ATS 7-8 · margin MAE 8.8

DateMatchupProjectedFinalPickCloseATS
09-24 ATL at GB 18.0–25.4 35–14 GB MISS +6.0 LOSS
09-27 ARI at SF 20.4–29.0 30–36 SF HIT +8.5 LOSS
09-27 BAL at DAL 24.7–25.5 34–31 DAL MISS -3.0 PUSH
09-27 CAR at CLE 20.5–20.1 18–21 CAR MISS -2.5 WIN
09-27 CIN at PIT 21.8–24.0 27–30 PIT HIT -3.5 WIN
09-27 HOU at IND 22.1–22.9 17–19 IND HIT -2.5 WIN
09-27 KC at MIA 23.6–19.2 24–10 KC HIT -11.5 LOSS
09-27 LAC at BUF 19.3–26.6 16–24 BUF HIT +7.0 WIN
09-27 LA at DEN 24.2–23.4 26–30 LA MISS -1.5 WIN
09-27 LV at NO 17.0–26.2 35–27 NO MISS +3.0 LOSS
09-27 MIN at TB 20.9–20.1 23–16 MIN HIT -1.5 LOSS
09-27 NE at JAX 21.4–22.8 6–35 JAX HIT +3.0 LOSS
09-27 NYJ at DET 18.1–30.0 24–31 DET HIT +6.5 WIN
09-27 SEA at WAS 25.2–17.6 31–33 SEA MISS -7.0 LOSS
09-27 TEN at NYG 21.3–23.5 7–12 NYG HIT +3.5 LOSS
09-28 PHI at CHI 22.3–25.3 7–27 CHI HIT -3.0 WIN

Week 4 62% winners · ATS 8-7 · margin MAE 6.6

DateMatchupProjectedFinalPickCloseATS
10-01 PIT at CLE 20.9–19.9 24–27 PIT MISS -2.5 WIN
10-04 ARI at NYG 21.5–24.9 24–36 NYG HIT -1.5 WIN
10-04 DAL at HOU 23.9–26.7 34–30 HOU MISS +2.5 LOSS
10-04 DEN at SF 22.1–25.4 14–24 SF HIT +3.0 WIN
10-04 DET at CAR 26.9–19.9 26–32 DET MISS -3.5 LOSS
10-04 GB at TB 23.2–20.8 17–14 GB HIT -3.5 WIN
10-04 IND at WAS 24.0–21.0 30–13 IND HIT -3.5 LOSS
10-04 JAX at CIN 27.0–21.7 22–17 JAX HIT +2.5 WIN
10-04 KC at LV 23.9–19.6 30–27 KC HIT -4.5 WIN
10-04 LAC at SEA 16.6–25.9 23–30 SEA HIT +7.0 PUSH
10-04 LA at PHI 22.9–23.7 24–20 PHI MISS -2.5 LOSS
10-04 MIA at MIN 15.0–25.9 10–15 MIN HIT +10.5 LOSS
10-04 NE at BUF 21.0–23.3 29–26 BUF MISS +7.0 WIN
10-04 NYJ at CHI 18.2–28.3 12–23 CHI HIT +3.0 WIN
10-04 TEN at BAL 14.9–27.8 18–24 BAL HIT +11.5 LOSS
10-05 ATL at NO 19.9–23.6 45–24 NO MISS +3.0 LOSS

Week 5 40% winners · ATS 6-8 · margin MAE 10.6

DateMatchupProjectedFinalPickCloseATS
10-08 TB at DAL 21.7–27.6 24–16 DAL MISS +9.5 WIN
10-11 BAL at ATL 22.4–22.7 30–23 ATL MISS -2.5 LOSS
10-11 CHI at GB 23.7–24.8 7–31 GB HIT -3.0 WIN
10-11 CIN at MIA 26.3–19.8 31–24 CIN HIT -7.0 PUSH
10-11 CLE at NYJ 21.7–20.7 12–17 CLE MISS +2.5 LOSS
10-11 DEN at LAC 19.2–22.5 23–17 LAC MISS -3.5 LOSS
10-11 DET at ARI 30.0–22.6 45–21 DET HIT -4.5 WIN
10-11 HOU at TEN 24.3–19.0 26–3 HOU HIT -7.0 LOSS
10-11 IND at PIT 21.6–20.8 22–34 IND MISS +2.5 LOSS
10-11 LV at NE 17.2–25.3 17–45 NE HIT +3.5 WIN
10-11 MIN at NO 20.2–21.0 23–13 NO MISS -1.5 LOSS
10-11 NYG at WAS 20.5–23.0 27–27 WAS MISS +3.0 WIN
10-11 PHI at JAX 17.0–26.0 17–19 JAX HIT +7.0 LOSS
10-11 SF at SEA 20.7–25.2 32–29 SEA MISS +3.0 LOSS
10-12 BUF at LA 24.7–26.6 37–34 LA MISS +2.5 WIN

Week 6 43% winners · ATS 6-8 · margin MAE 8.2

DateMatchupProjectedFinalPickCloseATS
10-15 SEA at DEN 21.9–19.7 14–17 SEA MISS -2.5 WIN
10-18 ARI at LA 21.0–32.3 18–16 LA MISS +13.5 WIN
10-18 BAL at CLE 25.3–17.6 10–13 BAL MISS -4.5 LOSS
10-18 BUF at LV 25.9–20.2 33–30 BUF HIT -6.0 WIN
10-18 CAR at PHI 19.4–22.1 25–14 PHI MISS +1.5 LOSS
10-18 CHI at ATL 21.9–24.7 31–23 ATL MISS -3.0 LOSS
10-18 DAL at GB 23.0–26.5 13–23 GB HIT +1.5 WIN
10-18 HOU at JAX 19.3–26.1 34–31 JAX MISS +3.0 LOSS
10-18 LAC at KC 17.5–24.4 6–22 KC HIT +8.5 LOSS
10-18 NO at NYG 22.5–21.2 34–27 NO HIT +1.5 WIN
10-18 NYJ at NE 16.3–27.0 19–26 NE HIT +7.5 LOSS
10-18 PIT at TB 20.7–21.3 26–19 TB MISS -3.0 LOSS
10-18 TEN at IND 18.4–24.8 26–20 IND MISS +7.0 WIN
10-19 WAS at SF 18.3–27.2 17–23 SF HIT +7.5 LOSS

Week 7 50% winners · ATS 6-7 · margin MAE 12.3

DateMatchupProjectedFinalPickCloseATS
10-22 NE at CHI 23.4–23.9 24–30 NE MISS +3.0 LOSS
10-25 CIN at BAL 21.8–27.6 35–13 BAL MISS +2.5 LOSS
10-25 CLE at TEN 23.0–16.2 27–24 CLE HIT -1.5 WIN
10-25 DEN at ARI 24.5–21.9 30–16 DEN HIT -4.5 LOSS
10-25 GB at DET 21.3–27.4 17–20 DET HIT +3.0 PUSH
10-25 IND at MIN 18.0–23.5 10–16 MIN HIT +6.5 WIN
10-25 KC at SEA 20.2–23.2 3–20 SEA HIT +2.5 WIN
10-25 LA at LV 26.9–21.0 35–21 LA HIT -4.5 WIN
10-25 MIA at NYJ 18.7–22.8 28–25 NYJ MISS +4.5 WIN
10-25 NYG at HOU 17.1–28.4 27–21 HOU MISS +10.0 LOSS
10-25 PIT at NO 19.2–23.7 16–10 NO MISS -3.5 LOSS
10-25 SF at ATL 24.2–20.7 20–29 SF MISS -3.5 LOSS
10-25 TB at CAR 19.7–22.5 43–13 CAR MISS +3.5 WIN
10-26 DAL at PHI 23.0–23.5 38–21 DAL HIT -4.5 LOSS

Week 8 57% winners · ATS 7-7 · margin MAE 11.2

DateMatchupProjectedFinalPickCloseATS
10-29 CAR at GB 19.2–25.0 19–27 GB HIT +3.5 WIN
11-01 ARI at DAL 24.2–29.4 33–30 DAL MISS +7.0 WIN
11-01 ATL at TB 21.0–21.1 0–16 ATL MISS +2.5 LOSS
11-01 BAL at BUF 22.3–25.6 10–36 BUF HIT +3.0 WIN
11-01 CLE at PIT 17.5–21.3 6–27 PIT HIT +3.5 WIN
11-01 IND at JAX 15.1–28.4 7–42 JAX HIT +10.0 WIN
11-01 KC at DEN 21.8–20.2 24–28 KC MISS -1.5 LOSS
11-01 LAC at LA 18.4–27.8 9–24 LA HIT +6.5 WIN
11-01 LV at NYJ 20.9–23.2 38–33 NYJ MISS +1.5 LOSS
11-01 MIN at DET 21.2–23.8 15–19 DET HIT +3.0 LOSS
11-01 NE at MIA 24.0–18.1 24–19 NE HIT -7.0 WIN
11-01 PHI at WAS 21.3–20.6 10–27 PHI MISS +6.0 LOSS
11-01 TEN at CIN 16.8–30.5 36–43 CIN HIT +11.5 LOSS
11-02 CHI at SEA 20.0–27.0 34–17 SEA MISS +3.0 LOSS
Download 2026 results (CSV)
Model output, not advice. These are simulated distributions from a statistical model, published to record how it performs. Nothing here is a betting recommendation. Lines shown are the closing numbers carried in the underlying data and may differ from any book. 21+; if gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-522-4700.

Every Possible Sunday — built Nov 05, 2026. Play-by-play and lines from nflfastR via nfl_data_py. Team marks belong to their owners and are used here to identify clubs.