2026 · Week 1 · Sep 9–Sep 14
16 games, simulated 10,000 times each.
A play-by-play NFL simulator, scored against the market in public. Every projection is published before kickoff and graded against the closing line afterwards — including the weeks it gets wrong.
See week 1 projections Track recordWhere the model disagrees most with the market week 1
| Matchup | Projected | Home win | Close | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 BAL at  IND |
20.5–23.7 | 58% | -3.5 | +6.7 |
 DEN at  KC |
23.4–20.2 | 40% | +2.5 | -5.8 |
 WAS at  PHI |
16.1–25.9 | 79% | +5.5 | +4.2 |
 SF at  LA |
22.9–30.3 | 71% | +3.5 | +3.9 |
 DAL at  NYG |
24.8–25.4 | 51% | -3.0 | +3.6 |
Edge is the model's projected home margin minus the market's. A big edge is the model making a claim, not a tip — on the 2025 holdout the closing line was still the more accurate of the two.
Scored on 2025, out of sample
Games
272
never used for tuning
Winner picked
66.5%
market 65.4%
Margin MAE
10.06
market 9.72
90% interval
89.0%
target 90%
The full breakdown, season by season and game by game, is on the track record page.
Published weeks
Model output, not advice. These are simulated distributions from a statistical model, published to record how it performs. Nothing here is a betting recommendation. Lines shown are the closing numbers carried in the underlying data and may differ from any book. 21+; if gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-522-4700.
Every Possible Sunday — built Sep 10, 2026. Play-by-play and lines from nflfastR via nfl_data_py. Team marks belong to their owners and are used here to identify clubs.